Could the upcoming ‘red wave’ election become a ‘red tsunami’?

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It looks like President Biden can’t buy a good stock these days, which is a wonder. He used taxpayers’ money to try to buy just about everything else. But its legislative excess – trying to do too much, too fast, with too little support – is collapsing, just like his poll numbers.

There is a growing belief in the media, and even among Democrats, that the upcoming November election could see a “red wave” of Republicans winning their respective House and possibly Senate races.

But comparing the upcoming elections to the red waves of 1994 and 2010, we could instead envision a “red tsunami”.

A recent analysis in “Sabato’s Crystal Ballproduced by Larry Sabato at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, examines the potential November election results in light of the fact that a president’s party typically loses seats in the first midterm election. . “With some key national factors seemingly in their favour, Republicans could win a healthy House majority in 2022 — perhaps even their biggest in nearly a century,” the analysis says.

the passed two red waves were 1994, when Republicans won 54 more House seats than they had won in previous elections, and 2010, when Republicans won 64 more House seats.

But if we look at what caused those huge Republican wins, we can get even better insight into the Democrats’ bleak outlook.

In 1992, the Democrat Bill Clinton won the presidential election with just 43% of the popular vote. Incumbent Republican President George HW Bush won 37% of the vote, with third-party candidate Ross Perot getting 19%. Although he was far from a majority of the popular vote, Clinton’s 43% was enough to win the Electoral College.

Bizarrely, Democrats immediately asserted that Clinton had a “mandate” from voters to make major changes, particularly to the health care system. What Became ClintonCare would have been a massive federal restructuring of the American healthcare system. And unlike president obamaBarack Hussein ObamaBarack Obama Wishes ‘Best Friend’ Michelle a Happy 58th Birthday Voting is a Constitutional Right: Failure Is Not an Option and ObamaCare, Clinton never tried to scam the public with a “if you like your health care plan, you can stick to it” promise – PolitiFact’s “Lie of the Year 2013”.”

Health care reform consumed Clinton’s first two years in office, and it failed — miserably.

Clinton, however, managed to pass several major tax increases in 1993. He raised personal income tax rates for the top two brackets, removed the 2.9% cap on the Medicare payroll tax, increased corporate income tax, increased the taxable portion of Social Security and raised the gas tax by 4.3 cents per gallon – all with 43% of the popular vote.

In the 1994 elections, voters expressed strong disapproval.

When Obama took office in 2009, Democrats again claimed they had a mandate for major change. Obama immediately began pushing the health care reform that consumed and divided the country for its first two years — and beyond. He was able to get ObamaCare passed in March 2010 only going through a very complicated legislative process because he didn’t have enough votes to pass it in the Senate. (Sound familiar?)

Oh and ObamaCare includes 21 new taxes.

So the two biggest Democratic defeats in modern history came after massive health care reform efforts and multiple new taxes — and with virtually unanimous Republican opposition.

Now comes Biden’s first midterm election in which Democrats have a majority of five or six seats in the House and no majority in the Senate (unless the vice president intervenes). And they are once again claiming a mandate and putting their excessive democratic approach on steroids.

His nearly $2 trillion Build Back Better bill would dramatically restructure and expand the welfare state and impose many new taxes at a time when the public is much more concerned about inflation and the pandemic.

And his push for voting rights, bolstered by exaggerated claims that opposing Democratic efforts amounts to a return to Jim Crow laws and possibly Confederacy, is playing even worse in the country.

These are staggering overruns against a backdrop of resounding failures, such as the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the growing aggression of Russia and China. This is why so many analysts are predicting a red wave.

But there’s a big difference between the excesses of 1994 and 2010 and the upcoming November elections that could see a red tsunami: Clinton and Obama were masterful politicians who were hugely popular with much of the public and seemed to be at the top of their game – even if the game didn’t always go in their favor.

Biden looks unhappy, confused and stuck. He won the presidential election not because of who he was, but because of who he was not. And that means the November election could not just be a rejection of the president’s agenda — a red wave — but a rejection of the president himself.

Merrill Matthews is a Resident Scholar at the Institute for Policy Innovation in Dallas, Texas. Follow him on Twitter @MerrillMatthews.

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