What could happen to the big party that loses the election? – Podcast


An existential moment for the liberal party? Another woman leader for work? In this episode of our election podcast Under the Line, our panel of experts tell us what could happen to the main parties if they don’t win government.

Led by award-winning broadcaster Jon Faine, the panel discusses potential configurations of the next federal parliament, including the possible balance of powers in the two chambers.

Polling expert Simon Jackman analyzes the latest voter polls and explains why a Labor victory still looks very likely at this stage. Anika Gauja maps the main competitions in the Senate and the likelihood of minor parties and independents holding decisive votes.

Andrea Carson marks the final leaders’ debate and argues that the Channel Seven format gave voters better insight into political issues than the previous debate on Channel Nine. Some 811,000 Australians tuned in to watch Wednesday night’s event, but Faine wonders if voters have heard enough about the issues they really care about.

“The range of topics for debate was still quite narrow,” says Carson. “I think it was noted for what wasn’t debated rather than what was,” says Faine, who cites tax reform, industrial relations and Indigenous affairs as important policy issues but missing.

The panel also considers the future of the Liberal Party if the leading moderates lose their seats and if it moves further to the right. Gauja lists the names likely to lead Labor if Anthony Albanese suffers a shock defeat on May 21.

Below the Line is brought to you by The Conversation and La Trobe University. It is produced by Courtney Carthy and Benjamin Clark.

Image credit: Lukas Coch/AAP; Mick Tsikas/AAP

Disclosure: Simon Jackman is an unpaid polling data consultant for the Climate 200 network of independent candidates.


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